Which brands to do think will disappear? Who is thriving?

This morning, I was a featured speaker for a CEO round table on the future of global luxury, and the conversation soon turned to what luxury and ultra-luxury consumers will want in the next 18 months and how to quickly adapt.

It’s widely accepted that the turbulence in this sector is producing rapid declines for some brands and interesting bright spots for others. The factors that are determining one category from the other are along trend lines that I forecasted 12-months ago - ironically in this same forum. I pulled up those strategy slides from 12-months ago and mapped them to the winners in the space today. That’s always a good time. ☺️

Like lots of things in life, the winners today made moves 12-months ago, and the companies who were confident in their execution 12-months ago, did nothing.

I call that the pride before the fall. And that fall has been hard for many.

I stood in a room full of CEOs last year and said we would see large-scale consolidation in the luxury segment in the next two years, and many luxury brands we know and love would cease to exist. That got incredulous looks from the audience at the time - but guess what…. it’s started.

For some companies, it’s too late. The window of opportunity to pivot was 12-months ago, but for others the time is right now to re-trench with strategies that will attract and retain customers before they jump ship. Luxury consumers are fickle, and they don’t want products from dying brands with mainstream experiences.

Which brands to do think will disappear? Who is thriving?

I have a few stand out examples. Any guesses who they might be and why?