Judgement > Confidence

Mountaineering is one of the few places left where judgment still matters more than confidence. You can be strong and still make the wrong call. You can be experienced and still misread the conditions. The mountain doesn’t reward bravado. It responds to preparation, restraint, and the ability to turn back early without needing to explain yourself.

That lesson translates more than people realize.

The best leaders I know don’t rush clarity. They don’t confuse movement with progress. And they are comfortable making decisions that look conservative to outsiders but are deeply informed underneath.

Last week, a climber died on the Final 400 on Mt. Whitney. I know that section well. It’s the final summit push on the Mountaineer’s Route, a vertical face just under 14,000 feet where conditions shift quickly and errors escalate.

Their partner turned back earlier in the day. They chose to continue on alone in bad weather. One person came home. One didn’t. The difference was a single decision.

Climbers often get criticized for turning around. It’s framed as hesitation or caution. But as someone who solos often, I’ve learned that the best choice is frequently the most informed one available. Conservative on the surface. Deeply informed underneath.

It’s a useful mindset heading into the week ahead: Less noise. Better judgment. Less concern for criticism or third-party critiques.

Not every decision is about winning the moment. Sometime the best decisions allow you to come back and fight another day!